The government of Prime Minister Ehud Barak wants to complete a
peace treaty with the Palestinians by the end of President Clinton's term.
Clinton has been working on the issue for nearly seven years and has
invested heavily in the success of the effort. Barak sees himself fighting
against time. Clinton's term is coming to a close and a successor will take
time to focus on the Middle East. The Palestinians have threatened to
unilaterally declare a state as early as Sept. 13. Palestinian leader Yasser
Arafat is more than 70 and his health is not good.
Barak is willing to address each of the Palestinian goals. But he is not
willing to fulfill them. The prime minister, whose coalition is crumbling
because of the government's negotiations, is willing to cede the entire Gaza
Strip and at least 95 percent of the West Bank, including the Jordan valley.
A key condition is that Israeli and international peacekeepers ensure that
the area is demilitarized. Barak is ready to give the Palestinians control
of many Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem and a formal presence on the Temple
Mount.
The prime minister is also ready to accept as many as 100,000
Palestinian refugees over the next 10 years. But Barak insists on formal
Israeli control over Jerusalem, authority over how many and which
Palestinians can enter Israel and the retention of some Jewish settlements.
Barak also wants money. Israel has been proposing billions of dollars in
compensation for the withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
THE PALESTINIANS:
Yasser Arafat's controversial accord with Israel in
1993 saved his leadership and provided the Palestinians with their first
territorial authority. It also introduced the more than two million
Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to Arafat's heavy-handed rule.
Arafat wants a settlement with Israel that increases his support and does
not classify him as a traitor. His red lines have been clear: Arafat wants a
Palestinian state in all of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and eastern Jerusalem
with a sovereign corridor that runs through Israel and connects the two
enclaves.
Arafat wants the uprooting of all Jewish settlements -- whether now or
in a few years -- and the right of every Palestinian refugee to return to
his home in what is now Israel. Privately, Arafat is willing to assure
Israel that the Jewish state will not be flooded by refugees. But he wants
the principle of return to be a key requirement of an agreement.
The Palestinian leader wants international peacekeepers to replace every
Barak demand for Israeli troops in the West Bank or Gaza Strip. Arafat has
warned that his goals are the minimum the Palestinians can accept. His key
card is a threat to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state by the end of
the year.
Arafat also wants billions of dollars. The latest demand is for $40
billion for refugee resettlement and development.
THE UNITED STATES:
The United States has one goal: to maintain peace in
the Middle East. Formally, the U.S. position is nearly identical to that of
the Palestinians. Successive administrations have supported full Israeli
withdrawal from the territories captured in the 1967 war, the illegality of
Jewish settlements, the right of refugees to return or obtain compensation.
But the Clinton administration, sensing the flexibility of Prime Minister
Barak, is urging the Palestinians to give on at least two issues: Jerusalem
and the right of return.
On Jerusalem, the United States supports a formula that comes close to
that offered by Barak. On the refugees, the United States prefers a symbolic
number of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes in what is now
Israel. The administration is urging Palestinian control over the Temple
Mount and an exchange of territory to ensure that any Palestinian state
includes the area of the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip.
The United States is prepared to invest billions to finance a
settlement. But Washington does not want to be the sole benefactor and wants
the European Union, Japan, the Gulf states to at least match the U.S.
pledge.
JORDAN:
More than any other Arab state, Jordan will be made or broken by
the Israeli-Palestinian agreement. Jordan wants an agreement that will
encourage hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to leave the Hashemite
kingdom and return to the West Bank. Amman also wants billions of dollars in
compensation for the millions of refugees it has supported since 1949 for
development of the kingdom.
A key concern of Jordan is whether the Palestinians are given the right
to a state that will border the Hashemite kingdom. King Abdullah has sent
signals to Israel urging Prime Minister Barak to prevent such a scenario.
EGYPT:
Egypt's main goal is that it retains its influence over Arafat
and its position as leader of the Arab world. Cairo will seek to gain
increased U.S. economic and political support in any Israeli-Palestinian
accord, arguing that Egypt played a major role in the last seven years of
negotiations. Egypt will also seek access to new advanced weapons and
benefits identical to that enjoyed by Israel.